American Pairing Dominates Belleair Market with Expert Predictions in Match 7

In the next installment of The Match, Rory McIlroy and a hobbled Tiger Woods will face off against Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, two of the most accomplished golfers in the world right now. Here are our best guesses and choices for who will win Saturday night.

Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth, four of golf’s biggest stars, are set to tee it up at Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Florida for 12 holes of The Match, now in its eighth iteration.

This showdown is not short on star power, as the top four players in this year’s Player Impact Program rating are participating. However, can a hobbled Tiger be able to keep up with the current crop of golfing greats?

Below, I explain why the Match 7 odds and our golf selections and forecasts both say “no.”

The Match 7 picks

• Thomas/Spieth to win outright | -110
• McIlroy/Woods longest tee shot — Hole No. 7 | -110

The Match 7 winner prediction

Thomas/Spieth to win outright | -110 at OKBET Golf Betting

While trying to predict the outcome of an exhibition match may seem banal, I think it should come down to one factor: Tiger Woods’ performance.

Thomas and Spieth have a well-documented track record of success as a partnership in team competitions, with an 8-2-0 record since the beginning of 2018 including a 4-0-0 performance at Quail Hollow in September.

The American duo is the safer choice, though, because of the questions surrounding Tiger’s health and play. Since he just withdrew from the Hero World Challenge due to right foot difficulties, we haven’t seen him play competitively (not that this is competitive golf) in months.

Yes, he’ll be traveling on a cart, and yes, he did boast that he could “shoot whatever shot you want” during his Hero World press conference, but it doesn’t make him anything other than the weakest link.

It could make for some exciting entertainment if these four get together, but I have a feeling JT and Spieth will emerge victorious.

The Match 7 prop prediction

McIlroy/Woods longest tee shot — Hole No. 7 | -110

Right here, right now, is a good time to endorse Rory and Tiger. Considering Rory’s driving distance, I was expecting a more favorable line for Tiger and himself.

If you look at the data, it’s hard to argue against the notion that McIlroy is the greatest and most consistent driver on Tour. Since turning professional, he has consistently been in the top three in strokes gained off the tee and in the top four in driving distance for the past six seasons (second in 2021-22 with a 321.3-yard average).

At their best, both JT and Spieth are formidable competitors on the OKBET course, but neither can match Rory’s length. Thomas was 14th last year in average yardage (314.3), while Spieth was 37th (308.4). Since JT’s 2016–17 season, neither has been in the Top 10.

At Pelican GC, the seventh hole is a par five that measures 542 yards from the back tees. Even more so if JT and Spieth have a lead in the match by the time Rory reaches this hole. In any case, he’s in a better position.